The last time the eye of a major storm like Hurricane Milton hit Tampa Bay, in 1921, the city was a water sleep of a few hundred thousand people. A century later, it is among the fastest growing metropolises in the United States, with more than 3 million people, and highly vulnerable to flooding due to climate change. As Milton barrels toward Florida’s Gulf Coast as a Category 4 storm, experts are worried that a century of good fortune could come to an abrupt end.
Here’s what you need to know:
Why is Tampa so vulnerable?
The National Hurricane Center is predicting a storm surge in Tampa Bay and surrounding waters of between 8 and 12 feet above normal tidal conditions, and rainfall of between 4 and 6 inches due to Hurricane Milton.
Florida’s entire Gulf Coast is especially vulnerable to storm surge. Last week, Hurricane Helene, which made landfall about 150 miles away from Tampa in the Florida Panhandle, also managed to cause drowning deaths in the Tampa area due to sources of about 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels.
“If it had hit a little further south and east, it could have been much, much worse,” said Philip Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University.
The increased risk is partially a result of topography. Florida’s Gulf of Mexico coast is shallow with a gentle, sloping floor. The higher ocean floor acts as a barrier that keeps the storm water flowing, forcing the ocean to surge over the shore. It’s the opposite of Florida’s east coast, where the ocean floor drops suddenly just a few miles from shore.
“You can have the same storm, the same intensity, the same everything, but very different surges,” Mr. Klotzbach said.
A 2015 report by Boston-based catastrophe modeling firm Karen Clark and Co. concluded that Tampa Bay is the most vulnerable place in the United States to storm surge flooding from a hurricane and that it would lose $175 billion in damages.
Are the residents ready?
While Floridians are no strangers to storms, Tampa hasn’t been in the direct path of a major hurricane in over a century.
In that lapse, the area has exploded in growth. Tens of thousands of Americans have moved to the area during the COVID-19 pandemic, with many choosing to settle along barrier islands like Clearwater and St. Petersburg overlooking the normally placid waters of the emerald Gulf. . More than 51,000 people will move to the area between 2022 and 2023, making it the fifth-fastest growing U.S. metropolitan area, according to U.S. Census data.
Longtime residents, having experienced numerous false alarms and near misses like Irma in 2017, may also be unprepared for a direct hit. A local legend says that the blessings of the Native Americans who once called the region home and built mounds to keep out invaders have largely protected the area from major storms for centuries.
MIT meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel said a hurricane in Tampa is the worst-case “black swan” scenario experts have worried about for years.
“It is a huge population. It is very exposed, very inexperienced and this is a lost proposition,” Mr. Emanuel, who has studied hurricanes for 40 years, said. “I always thought Tampa would be the city to worry about the most.”
What about climate change?
Even lurking in the waves and the wind are the effects of climate change. Rising temperatures from greenhouse gas emissions have warmed the oceans, led to rising sea levels and added moisture to the air – all key factors that determine the strength of a hurricane and the potential flooding that can cause.
“Due to global warming, global climate models predict that hurricanes will likely cause more intense rainfall and have an increased risk of coastal flooding due to higher storm surge caused by rising seas,” Angela wrote Colbert, scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, in a 2022. report.
On October 7, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Milton to a Category 5 storm after it gained 75 mph in intensity in the past 24 hours. One of the reasons may be above all the high water temperature, which acts as fuel for the storm. The hurricane was downgraded to a Category 4 storm late Tuesday morning, the center said.
“Milton’s rapid intensification is incredible,” University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy said in an email. “I’ve been reporting for months, the Gulf has been and is record or near record hot.”
The researchers noted that, due to the rise in sea levels brought about by climate change, the height of Hurricane Andrew today would be 7 centimeters higher than when this storm hit South Florida 30 years ago.
Are people being evacuated?
Officials in the area began issuing evacuation orders on October 7 for residents in six counties surrounding Tampa Bay, which is home to nearly 4 million people. Residents of mobile homes, RVs, and manufactured homes that are unable to withstand winds up to 110 mph are especially at risk.
Florida Division of Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie strongly urged people to leave coastal areas, noting that people who died on the barrier islands during Hurricane Ian in 2022 will still be alive if they cross the bridge to the mainland and find shelter.
“Please, if you’re in the Tampa Bay area, you need to evacuate. If they’ve called an evacuation order, I’m begging you, I’m begging you to evacuate. Drowning deaths from a storm are 100% preventable if you leave,” Guthrie said.
When was the last storm to hit Tampa?
Almost inexplicably, the storms seem to bypass Tampa, with most of the Gulf disturbances passing well north of the city. The last time the Tampa area was hit by the eye of a major hurricane was on October 25, 1921. The hurricane does not have an official name, but is known locally as the storm of Tarpon Springs, for the seaside town where it came ashore.
The hurricane, estimated at Category 3 with winds of up to 129 mph, was pegged at 11 feet. At least eight people died, and damage was estimated at $5 million at the time.
Now, the tourist area known for its white sand beaches has grown by leaps and bounds, with an economy estimated to be worth almost $200 billion. Hurricane Milton threatens to wash away all that development.
This story was reported by The Associated Press.
